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Weakness in the Chinese property market is now threatening the insurance sector, suggesting that contagion may spread in the months ahead. As such, China’s slow-motion financial crisis will likely run on for many more months, with commercial and geopolitical implications alike. The ailing insurance sector China Vanke Group (万科企业), a major property developer, in early…
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Risks affecting foreign businesses operating in mainland China have worsened of late – but they are nothing new. Rather, companies have faced comparable challenges before, often much worse than today. Their experiences can provide lessons for executives schooled in happier times, who now need to understand that such political risks are no longer fanciful. A…
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The victory of Prabowo Subianto in the Indonesian presidential elections has drawn attention to the former special forces general’s links to Suharto’s New Order (Orde Baru) – and is thus a reminder of the prominence and plight of the Chinese business community in Indonesia at that time. The elections Prabowo won the polls convincingly, although…
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The coming of Chinese New Year is often a moment to reflect on what went before – and the previous Year of the Rabbit was a busy one for the People’s Republic of China (“PRC”). Politics In terms of politics, General Secretary Xi Jinping dominated events, most notably after the retirement of Premier Li Keqiang…
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Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea have provided not only an interesting insight into how low-level maritime conflict can affect insurance markets, but also highlight broader geopolitical threats to China’s mercantile marine. Giddying price rises The attacks in the Red Sea have lifted insurance costs for US, Israeli and British shipping (admittedly…
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An exhibition at Singapore’s Asian Civilisations Museum, Manila Galleon, provides some insights into trans-Pacific trade in the sixteenth, seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. In particular, the exhibition provides a viewpoint into how Spanish galleons plied across the Pacific and so tied Europe, Mexico, the Philippines, and China together in a web of commerce for several…
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A Hong Kong court decision to allow an insolvency petition against one of China’s biggest property developers has underlined how bad the situation in mainland China’s economy has become. The decision The hearing in Hong Kong approved an insolvency petition against China Evergrande Group (中国恒大集团) (“Evergrande”) presented by Top Shine Global Company, Limited, a creditor…
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This post continues an assessment of the outlook for Taiwan, after the victory of the Democratic Progressive Party (民進黨) (“DDP”) in presidential elections on 13 January 2024. Maintenance of pressure Since the poll, the People’s Republic of China (“PRC”) has maintained pressure on Taipei. The Taiwan Affairs Office of the PRC government announced that the…
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Presidential and legislative elections in Taiwan took place on 13 January 2024. The polls received much mainstream media coverage, in the context of rising tensions between Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China (“PRC”). The elections The presidential polls on 13 January 2024 were won by William Lai Ching-te (賴清德) (“William Lai”), the candidate of…
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The falls in Chinese stock markets have drawn attention to the role of derivatives in worsening the losses, specifically a species known as “snowballs” (雪球). These derivatives are also known as “auto-callables”, in some markets. Snowballs are products sold to retail investors, which operate by providing a coupon, akin to a bond payment, that pays…
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Living with the Dragon 