Efforts by American allies to strengthen ties amongst themselves in the face of pressure from China may enhance US deterrence in East Asia. 

However, the linkage of hitherto compartmentalised issues is resulting in the emergence of a single “theatre of operations” in East Asia. 

Such a shift may yet prompt a response from China, which will fear a resultant loss of regional “sway” in a kind of “domino” effect. 

The consequences for regional security may prove troubling.    

Growing ties

A trilateral summit between the Philippine President Fernando Marcos, US President Joe Biden, and Japanese Premier Fumio Kishida in mid-April 2024, drew attention to efforts to strengthen links amongst American allies in East Asia. 

Moreover, the meeting between Marcos and Kishida came as Japan and the Philippines made progress on a Reciprocal Access Agreement, which would allow for Japanese Self-Defence Forces (“SDF”) to deploy to the Philippines. 

Other developments

Other signs of this shift have emerged separately.  One such was the deployment of a US HIMARS missile system to Basco Island north of Luzon, in easy reach of the Bashi Channel, which runs south of Taiwan.  The deployment highlights how the US could respond in the event of a war in the Taiwan Straits. 

Moreover, the HIMARS deployment is part of the broader Balikatan 2024 exercises, involving the US military and the Armed Forces of the Philippines (“AFP”), which includes naval and (for the first time) coast guard exercises in parts of the South China Sea claimed by China.

Similarly, Japan in 2022 agreed a reciprocal access agreement with Australia, allowing for the mutual deployment of forces, and debate has arisen about Japan or South Korea potentially joining in the AUKUS arrangement for nuclear submarines. 

From hub and spoke to lattice

These events highlight how a shift in regional security arrangements is under way, from the “hub and spoke” system built around the 1951 Treaty of San Francisco, whereby the US offers security guarantees to its allies in Asia, towards a “lattice” structure, allowing for exchanges of support between the “spokes”.

Such moves make sense in terms of aligning efforts, but raise new risks.  One is that Beijing may see US or Japanese support for the Philippines as encouraging other states such as Vietnam to push back.  China may fear a “domino effect” eroding its regional sway.

First the Philippines, then Vietnam?

A second threat is that states may link issues that were hitherto compartmentalized.  For instance, Beijing may calculate that putting pressure on Japan around the disputed Senkaku / Diaoyu Islands, or conducting aerial deployments around Taiwan, would be conducive to resolving issues in the South China Sea.

The result may be the emergence of single arena for potential contest, perhaps stretching from the East China Sea, through the Taiwan Straits, well into the southern stretches of the South China Sea, or even south to Australia. 

A new era

In short, the emergence of a “lattice” of American allies may shore up the US security system in the face of Chinese pressure for now.

However, this lattice also poses challenges in terms of the “fusion” of various disputes into what Beijing seems sure to see as a concerted effort to curtail its sway.

The prospects for misunderstanding are thus real, raising the threat that even minor incidents escalate into more direct confrontation, or even conflict.

After all, two sides now stand clearly arrayed against each other.