Presidential and legislative elections in Taiwan took place on 13 January 2024.  The polls received much mainstream media coverage, in the context of rising tensions between Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China (“PRC”). 

The elections

The presidential polls on 13 January 2024 were won by William Lai Ching-te (賴清德) (“William Lai”), the candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party (民進黨) (“DDP”), with 40% of the vote. 

His vote was a plurality, but not a majority. Other candidates, such as Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) of the Kuomintang (國民黨) (“KMT”) won 33.5%, and Taiwan People’s Party (台灣民眾黨) (“TPP”) candidate Ko Wen-je won 26.5%. 

As such, the victory was not emphatic, but was rather a vote for the status quo by about 70% of the voting public. 

Setback in Legislative Yuan

The DPP was not successful in the legislative poll. 

Of note, the Legislative Yuan (Taiwan’s parliament) is now split between the DPP, the opposition KMT, and the TPP.  The DPP lost 12 seats, holding 51, while the KMT took 52, up from 38.  The TPP holds eight seats. 

The role of the TPP as “kingmaker” in the Legislative Yuan will inject a degree of unpredictability into developments; the TPP is probably closer to the KMT, but a public falling out between TPP and KMT leaders ahead of the poll made clear that the two groups will struggle to coordinate activities. 

Impeding policy

The divide within the legislature will also impede the DPP government’s legislative agenda, and will enliven what is ordinarily a rowdy legislative chamber. Fights broke out and water balloons were thrown in the Legislative Yuan in 2020, for instance.

The main issues to come out of the election related to the affordability of housing, wages, and living costs (not defence).  As such, the government may now struggle to expand defence spending to a level that would meet US expectations, which may affect projects such as the construction of anti-submarine frigates and indigenous Hai Kun (海鯤) (or narwhale) submarines. 

A Hai Kun-class submarine

What comes next

The first political test will come in early February 2024, with the election of a president of the Legislative Yuan.  A key question, then, will be whether Ko Wen-je and the TPP support the DPP candidate, and, if so, at what price. 

This page will address China’s possible responses in due course.